EUROPE, IT'S TIME TO LEAD

Crunch time for tackling climate change in Europe

Get the latest EU global warming forecast

Find out why +2°C matters

See where the debate is heading. Who is responsible? What does that mean for global warming and life on Earth?

Then see if your MEPs will do what it takes to keep global warming below 2°C

---

Why +2°C matters

Greenhouse gas emissions caused by human activities have already increased the global average temperature by 0.8°C compared to pre-industrial times. Further increases in these emissions will inevitably lead to higher temperatures.

Severe climate impacts occur even at temperature rises below 2°C, but the consequences become catastrophic if the temperature climbs above 2°C towards 3°C – 4°C above pre-industrial levels. [1]

European leaders have repeatedly committed to policies aimed at keeping global warming below 2°C - a target set in recognition of the very bleak outcome at larger temperature rises. [2]

At 2°C...

• Food: For low latitudes in particular, crop productivity decreases for some basic cereals, adding to global pressures on food production.
• Water: Around 1 billion people subjected to scarcer water availability and increasing drought
• Ecosystems: About one fifth of all species at increasingly high risk of extinction
• Ecosystems: Most corals bleached
• Ecosystems: Increasing risks of deadly wildfires

---

The debate

See where the policies are taking us

EU Commission's proposal

EU proposes to miss its own target!

Forecast rise: 2.4-3.2°C

The European Commission proposal starts every debate on EU policy. In January 2008, the Commission proposed the EU make a 20% cut in its greenhouse gas emissions by 2020, or a 30% cut if other countries agree to cut their emissions too.[1] But the proposal also allows a large part of these cuts to be achieved by buying carbon credits for projects to reduce emissions in developing countries. When these carbon credits from outside Europe are taken into account, the cuts required by Europe are significantly lower than the Commission's proposal suggests. Even the proposal to cut European emissions by 30% only means around 22% in reality. If other developed countries followed this lead, we would not make the cuts we need globally, so this proposal is not consistent with the commitments made by European leaders to keep global warming below 2ºC.[2] Now it is up to the European Parliament and to European governments to win the debate for a Europe that leads the fight against climate change.

At +2.8°C...

• Food: Complex, localized negative impacts on small holders, subsistence farmers and fishers. Malnutrition and diarrhoeal diseases multiply.
• Water: Around 2 billion people will be subjected to scarcer water availability and increasing drought.
• Ecosystems: Up to one third of all species will be at increasingly high risk of extinction. Widespread coral mortality.

The response we need

At least 30% cuts needed in European emissions

Forecast rise: < 2.0°C

To have a chance of keeping global warming below 2ºC, developed countries must make emission cuts of at least 30% by 2020, and developing countries must also tackle their emissions growth.[1] Europe must show leadership by making at least a 30% cut in its own emissions by 2020, with yearly cuts in EU countries required by law. But because developed countries have produced the emissions which have caused climate change, Europe must show real leadership by also supporting developing countries with additional finance to help them mitigate their emissions.[2] Leadership means cutting emissions at home and helping to cut them abroad.

At +2ºC...

• Food: For low latitudes in particular, crop productivity decreases for some basic cereals, adding to global pressures on food production.
• Water: Around 1 billion people will be subjected to scarcer water availability and increasing drought.
• Ecosystems: About one fifth of all species will be at an increasingly high risk of extinction; most corals will be bleached; increasing risks of deadly wildfires.

The latest forecast

More work to be done

Forecast rise: 3.2-4.0°C

12th December 2008 The final deal was done by EU heads of state and government, wrangling over the private interests of the most polluting industries, leaving much work still to do to improve the EU's climate performance over the next 12 months. Europe committed to just a 20% reduction in its greenhouse gases by 2020, and made only a vague promise to cut by 30% if other countries take on comparable efforts next year, but left a lot of loopholes that will now need to be closed. Under the new laws, far too many industries in Europe will continue to receive permits to pollute absolutely free, instead of having to pay for them in auctions. And EU governments have given themselves far too much flexibility to meet the targets by buying 'carbon credits' for low-carbon projects outside the EU's borders, instead of actually cutting emissions in Europe. More than half of the proposed cuts can be made in this way! EU leaders also refused to commit new financial help for developing countries to adapt to the unavoidable impacts of climate change and to cut the growth in their emissions - a key element in finding the global agreement to cut emissions we need by the end of 2009. Climate Action Network Europe, Friends of the Earth Europe, Greenpeace and WWF thank everyone who took action through the 'Time to Lead!' campaign. There is now one year to reach a new global climate deal by the deadline world leaders have set of December 2009 at major UN climate talks in Copenhagen. The Time to Lead! coalition members all have big plans to fight next year for the ambitious EU climate policy and the global deal we need. Join us on the road to Copenhagen 2009: http://www.climnet.org/ http://www.foeeurope.org/climate/index.htm, www.thebigask.eu http://www.greenpeace.org/eu-unit/ http://www.panda.org/eu

With a rise of 3°6C...

• Food: Productivity of all cereals decreases in low latitudes. Substantial burden on health services from increasing malnutrition and diarrhea, as well as cardio-respiratory and infectious diseases.
• Water: Between 2 and 3 billion people will be subjected to scarcer water availability and increasing drought. Water availability in Southern Europe reduced by up to one third.
• Ecosystems: Increasing risk of major extinctions around the globe, including over a third of sub-Saharan African species at risk of extinction.