Why does 2°C of global warming matter?
Greenhouse gas emissions caused by human activities have already increased the global average temperature by 0.8°C compared to pre-industrial times.
Further increases in these emissions will inevitably lead to higher temperatures.
Severe climate impacts occur even at temperature rises below 2°C, but the consequences become catastrophic if the temperature climbs above 2°C towards 3°C - 4°C above pre-industrial levels.
European leaders have repeatedly committed to policies aimed at keeping global warming below 2°C - a target set in recognition of the very bleak outcome at larger temperature rises.
What do we need to do to stay below 2°C of global warming?
The EU - in the 2006 Communication from the the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament “Limiting Global Climate Change to 2 degrees Celsius” - has recognised that to have even a 50-50 chance of keeping global warming below 2°C, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases must stabilise around 450 ppmv CO2 equivalent.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has shown that for the world to stabilise its greenhouse gas concentrations at that level, developed countries must reduce their greenhouse gas emissions in the range of 25 - 40% by 2020 (and by 80 - 95% by 2050) and developing countries must substantially reduce their growth in emissions.
That means that Europe must cut its own greenhouse gas emissions by at least 30% below 1990 levels by 2020, and provide substantial additional financial support to developing countries to help them to cut their growth in emissions.
Why must Europe cut its own emissions by 30% by 2020? Can’t it pay to cut emissions in other parts of the world through carbon “credits”?
Allowing Europe to meet the 30% target by buying carbon “credits” for low-carbon projects in the developing world is not consistent with what is needed to stay below 2°C of global warming. To keep global warming below 2°C, developed countries must make cuts in the 25-40% range indicated by the IPCC, and developing countries must reduce their growth in emissions.
Any access to carbon “credits” must therefore be in addition to at least 30% emission cuts within Europe.
What is more, unless Europe makes the necessary shifts to a low carbon economy now, it will become increasingly hard to meet the longer-term emissions cuts of at least 80% by 2050.
There are substantial long-term benefits to making this shift to a low-carbon economy now. Europe can achieve a more efficient economy, producing the “green collar” jobs of the future, and significantly improve the health and quality of life of European citizens. A shift to greater reliance on renewable sources of energy, in place of imported fossil fuels, will enhance Europe’s energy security in the 21st Century.
Why must Europe also provide additional financial support to developing countries to cut their emissions?
Developing countries have been least responsible for the historical greenhouse gas emissions that are already causing global warming, yet they will be the worst affected by climate change.
To show real global leadership in tackling climate change, Europe must accept its fair share amongst developed countries of the costs of reducing the growth in developing country greenhouse gas emissions.
This will be a crucial element in helping to find the international agreement to follow the Kyoto Protocol that we need to keep global warming below 2°C.
Who are the email recipients on the website? Why are they changing?
The EU legislative process can be complicated. The particular process to decide Europe’s response to climate change - the EU Climate Package - is called “co-decision”.
The process begins with a proposal by the European Commission, representing the interests of the EU as a whole.
This proposal is then debated by the European Parliament, made up of members directly elected by citizens in each of the EU member states. It is the environment and industry committees of the Parliament that have most power over the EU Climate Package.
After the committees have voted to decide their opinion, some of their leading members then negotiate with the Council of the European Union. The Council is made up of all of the environment ministers of the EU member states.
The Time to Lead! campaign first targeted the members of the environment and industry committees in the European Parliament. After their votes, the campaign has moved to target the environment ministers from each member state, and the leading members of the Parliament negotiating with them.
A final process to find an agreement that will become law can see the European Commission also enter the negotiations, before a vote by all MEPs in a plenary session of the European Parliament.
The ‘Time to Lead!’ campaign will continue to adapt to target the most relevant politicians deciding Europe’s response to climate change.
What should I do if I receive a response to my email?
It’s easy for politicians to claim that they are working hard to lead the fight against climate change, without committing to support the policies that are needed to keep global warming below 2°C.
If you receive a response to your email, check whether they have committed to support:
1. at least 30% cuts in European greenhouse gas emissions (made inside Europe, not by buying carbon ‘credits’ from overseas);
2. strong measures to ensure that EU member states keep their commitments on emissions cuts;
3. additional financial help for developing countries to cut their emissions too.
If they are supporting these measures, you can congratulate them and give them your support!
If they are not, you can remind them of the promises European leaders have made to keep global warming below 2°C, and ask them why they won’t do what it takes to keep their promise.
You can refer to the following key documents in which that commitment has been made:
March 2007 European Council conclusions (declaration by all the EU Heads of State and Government)
“The European Council underlines the vital importance of achieving the strategic objective of limiting the global average temperature increase to not more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels”
available at http://www.consilium.europa.eu/showPage.asp?id=432&lang=en&mode=g
May 2008 European Parliament resolution “Scientific facts of climate change: findings and recommendations for decision-making” (resolution by the whole European Parliament)
“there is political consensus in the EU on the vital importance of achieving the strategic objective of limiting the global average temperature increase to not more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels”
available at http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?pubRef=-//EP//TEXT+TA+P6-TA-2008-0223+0+DOC+XML+V0//EN
